The Global View

The crisis over the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply traditionally flows — reached a critical juncture this week as diplomatic channels narrowed toward what could become the first formal framework agreement to end hostilities. Iran's newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced a "controlled maritime zone" spanning the strait on 20 May, asserting Tehran's intent to manage vessel traffic rather than simply reopen the waterway.

Pakistan's role as mediator has been pivotal. Army chief General Asim Munir travelled to Tehran as part of mediation efforts, conveying terms from multiple parties. Tehran confirmed it was considering the latest proposal, though Iran's state-affiliated Fars news agency dismissed characterisations of the deal as "incomplete and inconsistent with reality," insisting the strait would remain under Iranian management.

The European Union, meanwhile, took independent action. EU governments expanded the scope of their existing Iran sanctions regime, deeming the blockade "contrary to international law" and enabling further restrictive measures against individuals responsible for impeding freedom of navigation. The move underscored Europe's willingness to act on its own strategic interests, particularly as energy costs remain elevated.

A regional source indicated the emerging deal may unfold in two phases: the first focused on reopening the strait, and a second phase lasting 30 to 60 days addressing nuclear issues and broader terms. Abu Dhabi's state oil company cautioned that full flows through the strait would not return until early 2027, noting it could take four months to restore oil flow to 80 per cent of pre-conflict levels. The Strait remains the fulcrum of global energy security, and its resolution — or continued closure — will shape economic trajectories far beyond the Gulf.

The confirmed outbreak of Ebola Bundibugyo virus in the DRC's Ituri Province has escalated at an alarming pace. As of 23 May, 968 suspected cases and at least 216 deaths had been reported, though WHO officials acknowledged the true number of infections likely far exceeds the suspected count. The virus had by then spread to North Kivu, South Kivu, and the capital Kinshasa, as well as to Uganda's capital, Kampala, where five related cases were confirmed.

The outbreak's severity prompted the WHO to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 17 May — only the eighth such declaration in history for Ebola. Africa CDC followed a day later with a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security. The Bundibugyo species, first identified in Uganda in 2007, is particularly challenging because the existing licensed Ebola vaccine targets a different strain and is not expected to provide protection.

Response efforts face formidable obstacles. The affected areas in Ituri are remote, densely populated, and afflicted by armed conflict and high population movement linked to mining activities and cross-border trade. On 21 May, residents in Rwampara protested safe burial protocols, setting fire to tents treating Ebola patients — an echo of community resistance encountered in past outbreaks. Uganda temporarily banned handshakes and unnecessary physical contact as a precaution.

The India-Africa Forum Summit was postponed due to the health emergency, and the DRC's national football team cancelled its pre-World Cup training camp in Kinshasa. WHO officials warned that a vaccine for the Bundibugyo strain could be months away, stressing that containing the outbreak will depend on intensive contact tracing, community engagement, and infection control in a region where trust in health authorities remains fragile.

Colombia's presidential contest has narrowed to a fiercely polarised three-way race with days to go. Iván Cepeda, the candidate of Petro's governing Historic Pact coalition, leads polls at roughly 44 per cent — comfortably ahead but short of the 50-per-cent threshold needed to avoid a 21 June runoff. De la Espriella, a hard-right outsider sometimes compared to Argentina's Javier Milei, has surged to roughly 22 per cent, while Valencia, backed by former president Álvaro Uribe, is polling near 20 per cent and trending upwards.

The election unfolds against a backdrop of intensifying violence. Candidates have scaled back campaigning after a wave of attacks, including the 2025 assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay — the first killing of a Colombian presidential candidate in over 30 years. FARC dissident factions launched a series of attacks in Cauca and Valle del Cauca in late April, including a bombing on the Panamericana Highway that killed at least 21 civilians, contributing to a 44 per cent monthly increase in fatalities from armed-group violence.

The race is seen as a verdict on Petro's presidency — Colombia's first by a left-wing leader. His approval ratings have rebounded to nearly 49 per cent, bolstering Cepeda. But critics point to record cocaine production under his watch and argue that ceasefire negotiations with armed groups have emboldened insurgents. Corruption, street crime, and armed violence dominate voter concerns.

If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers would take place on 21 June. Polling suggests Cepeda could narrowly lose to Valencia in a head-to-head contest, making the identity of the second-place finisher — Valencia or de la Espriella — potentially decisive for Colombia's political direction.

Indonesia's simultaneous pursuit of military modernisation and economic stabilisation captured the strategic tensions facing major emerging economies this week. President Prabowo declared the country would "keep strengthening defense capabilities as a deterrent" while handing six French-built Rafale jets and an array of supporting hardware — including Meteor air-to-air missiles, an Airbus A400M transport, and Falcon 8X aircraft — to the Air Force. The jets are the first tranche of a landmark 42-aircraft order from Dassault worth $8.1 billion, one of the largest defence contracts in Southeast Asian history.

Yet the defence splurge coincides with mounting fiscal stress. The Indonesian rupiah has sunk to new lows, prompting the government to intervene with daily injections of around 2 trillion rupiah to shore up the currency. Economists have expressed concern about Jakarta's insistence on maintaining fuel subsidies despite surging global oil prices driven by the Hormuz crisis. Prabowo also announced a $3.77 billion cut to the country's flagship free-meal programme, suggesting budgetary pressures are forcing difficult trade-offs.

Geopolitically, Indonesia has charted an increasingly independent course. Officials confirmed the country will continue importing Russian crude after earlier sanctions relief expired, citing BRICS membership, energy security, and Jakarta's longstanding non-aligned foreign policy. The government expects Russian oil to enter Indonesia soon as part of a phased commitment to import 150 million barrels by year's end.

The parallel signals — Western arms procurement alongside Russian energy ties and BRICS alignment — encapsulate the hedging strategy now adopted by several Global South powers determined to maximise strategic autonomy in an era of great-power competition.

The European Union is entering a new era of technological governance as enforcement of the AI Act accelerates. The regulation, formally known as Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, imposes a tiered, risk-based framework requiring transparency, human oversight, and fundamental-rights protections for AI systems operating within the bloc. The framework's primary goal is to foster "trustworthy AI" while balancing innovation with public safety.

Under Article 57, every EU member state is mandated to establish at least one national AI regulatory sandbox by 2 August 2026. These environments are designed to let innovators test new systems under official supervision. However, the scramble to meet this deadline has created significant bottlenecks for startups and small businesses, with demand surging for specialised regulatory consultants who can translate abstract legal text into practical engineering implementation.

The broader implications extend well beyond Europe's borders. As with the General Data Protection Regulation — which this week marked its tenth anniversary — the AI Act is expected to produce a "Brussels effect," shaping corporate behaviour worldwide as multinational firms align global practices with EU standards rather than maintain parallel systems. Companies face a fundamental pivot from "move fast and break things" to designing for compliance at the architectural level.

The European Commission's voluntary AI Pact is helping providers align ahead of formal enforcement deadlines, but industry observers warn that organisations failing to engage early risk being shut out as the regulatory window closes. With enforcement moving from rulemaking to active supervision, the coming months will test whether Europe can make its ambition to lead global AI governance a practical reality rather than a bureaucratic burden.