The Global View

The uneasy truce that had allowed oil and gas to begin flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed this week in spectacular fashion. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the strait, declared the waterway closed, and then launched what it called retaliatory strikes on targets in Jordan, while the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar all reported incoming missile or drone threats.

The United States responded with three rounds of strikes on Iranian military targets during the week, hitting roughly 140 sites. But the most consequential development for the wider world is the near-cessation of commercial shipping: only about 13 vessels transited the strait in a recent 24-hour period, compared with the roughly 110 per day that passed through before the conflict began in February.

Oman has emerged as the key diplomatic broker, with its foreign minister holding intensive talks with Iran's Abbas Araghchi on Saturday. Omani officials have drafted a tentative proposal to manage traffic through the strait, and mediators from Pakistan and Qatar are also working to bring the two sides back to the table.

Brent crude stood at approximately $76.58 per barrel, up more than four dollars from the previous week, with analysts warning prices could climb a further $10–$15 over the summer if disruptions persist. Diesel prices are under particular pressure due to the combined loss of Middle Eastern refinery output and Russian facilities damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes. The crisis underscores how Gulf states — despite being peripheral to the original dispute — bear the heaviest burden, their economies, infrastructure, and populations now exposed to a conflict they did not start.

President Zelenskyy framed the shake-up as part of an "updated political strategy" in which each priority area of foreign policy would be assigned to an experienced individual capable of delivering results. Svyrydenko, who became prime minister in July 2025 at the age of 39, was widely credited with negotiating a critical minerals agreement with the United States that helped stabilise the Kyiv–Washington relationship.

Zelenskyy thanked Svyrydenko for her "clear, steady, and effective work" and said he had offered her "a new and important area of relations with a key partner." An opposition lawmaker suggested she was likely to become Ukraine's ambassador to the United States. Among the names being floated as possible successors are Naftogaz CEO Serhiy Koretskyi, Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal, and Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

The reshuffle arrives at an acutely sensitive juncture. Russia's campaign of ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian cities has intensified — overnight attacks on Kyiv on 11 July left at least ten people injured, and strikes on the Dnipropetrovsk region killed at least three. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues its own "long-range sanctions" campaign, striking Russian oil infrastructure. The government is also preparing to domestically manufacture US-designed Patriot air defence systems under licence, a landmark step toward strategic self-sufficiency.

On Monday, leaders of Ukraine's allies under the Coalition of the Willing framework are set to meet in Paris for talks on ending the war. Cabinet reshuffles require parliamentary approval, but lawmakers have largely rallied behind Zelenskyy since 2022 and are not expected to block the changes. The reorganisation signals Kyiv's determination to sharpen its diplomatic and institutional machinery as the war enters a phase where negotiations and battlefield reality are increasingly intertwined.

South Africa is facing its worst wave of xenophobic violence in years, with protests against undocumented migrants spreading across the country and claiming the lives of several foreign nationals. Many South Africans blame workers from other African countries for taking jobs and straining social services, a grievance that protest movements have channelled with increasing intensity.

The diplomatic fallout has been swift. Ghana postponed a long-planned visit by President Ramaphosa, fearing his presence would trigger mass counter-protests. The diplomatic rupture between Pretoria and Accra deepened after the killing of a Ghanaian national, with Ghana repatriating more than 900 citizens and preparing flights for hundreds more.

Nigeria's foreign minister, Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, warned that the safety of African immigrants in South Africa is deteriorating and announced additional evacuation flights after two Nigerians were killed in disputed circumstances. Mozambique reported that five of its citizens were killed in attacks. Malawi says more than 38,000 citizens have returned from South Africa in recent weeks, while over 60,000 have returned to Zimbabwe.

The crisis threatens South Africa's standing as the continent's economic anchor and its role as a hub for migrant labour. Foreign-owned shops and delivery services have been looted and torched. The government has been accused of not doing enough to contain the violence, even as traditional leaders travel to neighbouring countries for reconciliation talks. At stake is not just bilateral diplomacy but the broader architecture of free movement and economic integration across southern Africa.

The test, conducted in early July, marked a notable escalation in China's nuclear posture. Beijing described the launch as routine annual training that followed international law and was not directed at any country. But the choice of location — the South Pacific, an area covered by the Treaty of Rarotonga establishing a nuclear-free zone — drew pointed rebukes from regional governments.

Australia, Japan, and New Zealand all criticised the test. Wellington noted specifically that the launch occurred within the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, a framework that Pacific Island nations regard as foundational to their security architecture. Analysts said the test signalled that China's nuclear deterrent is expanding beyond its traditional reliance on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, with sea-based launch capability now being demonstrated at extended range.

The launch comes amid broader regional tensions. Indonesia and Singapore signed 26 cooperation agreements during their annual Leaders' Retreat, covering defence, energy, and digital infrastructure — a sign that Southeast Asian nations are quietly bolstering their own partnerships in an increasingly contested strategic environment. The Philippines' defence establishment has also been deepening ties with Western and Asian partners.

For Pacific Island states, the Chinese test revives uncomfortable memories: the South Pacific was once a testing ground for Western nuclear powers, and the nuclear-free-zone treaty was born precisely from opposition to such activity. China's willingness to conduct missile tests in the region — regardless of their declared intent — risks alienating the very nations Beijing has courted with infrastructure investment and diplomatic outreach in recent years. The strategic messaging is unmistakable: China is telling the world it can project nuclear power from the sea, far beyond its coastal waters.

The blaze broke out on Thursday afternoon near Los Gallardos in a semi-arid area of Almería province, southern Andalusia. Strong winds quickly fanned the flames across more than 3,200 hectares of forest and farmland. Emergency services found several victims trapped inside burned-out vehicles as they attempted to flee a rural hamlet; others were discovered on foot along a dry riverbed that became a death trap. Officials indicated that many of the deceased were foreign nationals, reflecting the area's popularity with expatriates from Britain and northern Europe.

Approximately 1,000 people were evacuated, while some 150 firefighters, 220 military personnel, and more than 30 aircraft battled the blaze. By Saturday, officials said the fire had stabilised on its eastern flank, though the western edge remained a concern due to wind and inaccessible ravines. Authorities have not confirmed the cause, though local media reported a downed power line as a possible ignition source — a claim the electricity provider disputed.

The fire is the deadliest recorded in Andalusia and comes after western Europe experienced its hottest June on record. Spain recorded more than 1,000 excess deaths attributed to heat during June alone, and temperatures in Portugal and southern Spain were forecast to climb to 43°C in coming days. The WHO Regional Director for Europe held emergency consultations with 41 countries to discuss preparation for the next wave.

Europe is the world's fastest-warming continent, with temperatures increasing at twice the global average since the 1980s. Parts of western Europe are now enduring their third heatwave in six weeks, and France recorded 40°C across central and western regions. The Los Gallardos fire is a grim illustration of a pattern scientists have long warned about: climate change is making Mediterranean landscapes more combustible, fires faster, and escape more perilous.