The Global View

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from a NATO gathering in Sweden before continuing to New Delhi, confirmed that the United States was still waiting for Iran to respond to the Trump administration's latest terms for a potential peace deal, conveyed through Pakistani mediators, and Tehran confirmed it was considering the proposal. Rubio reiterated the president's criteria: stopping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, reopening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, and turning over enriched uranium.

The economic backdrop is unforgiving. Brent crude prices fell to roughly $99 a barrel and U.S. crude dropped almost 5% to about $92, as Washington and Tehran negotiated a deal that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained effectively closed to oil flows since the war began on February 28; about 20% of all oil supplies pass through the strait. AAA called it the most expensive Memorial Day weekend in four years, with the national average at $4.51 a gallon — up about 51% from the start of the war.

The conflict's origins remain stark. Since February 28, the United States and Israel have been engaged in a war with Iran and its regional allies, beginning with airstrikes that targeted military and government sites and assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — launched during ongoing negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. A ceasefire brokered by Pakistan has frayed repeatedly; the conflict has reached an unusual state in which the formal ceasefire holds but the economic standoff continues, with Iran retaining the ability to selectively close the Strait and the U.S. maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Even an agreement, executives warn, will not deliver immediate relief: the head of Abu Dhabi's state oil company said full flows through the strait will not return until the first or second quarter of 2027, and it would take at least four months to restore oil flow to 80% of pre-conflict levels.

Federal prosecutors in Florida unsealed an indictment charging former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and five others in connection with the Cuban military's fatal downing of two planes 30 years ago, in what officials cast as an escalation in the Trump administration's pressure campaign against the Cuban government. Castro was indicted on one count of conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, four counts of murder and two counts of destruction of aircraft.

The choreography was the message. The indictment, framed as a long-awaited gift to Cuban American hard-liners in south Florida, was released at Miami's Freedom Tower — which once served as the Cuban Refugee Center — leaving no doubt about its domestic political purpose, while also serving as an ominous warning that the administration is ready to abandon diplomacy in favor of military operations in its quest for regime change. Officials briefed reporters that the indictment is aimed at pressuring the regime into opening its economy while making clear that military action is an option, providing the pretext for an operation to capture Castro similar to the raid that deposed Maduro.

Cuban leaders responded with defiance. President Miguel Díaz-Canel said Cuba "has the absolute and legitimate right to defend itself against a military assault," warning that such an assault would "cause a bloodbath with incalculable consequences." President Trump kept both doors open, calling the charges a "big moment" but adding that he does not believe escalation in Cuba will be necessary, though he wants to help people in what he sees as a "failing nation." Analysts caution that the analogy with Iran is sobering: the lesson of Iran is that regime change cannot be brought about from the air, even when there is massive, organized opposition to the government on the ground — something that does not exist in Cuba.

Warsh, 56, was sworn in at the White House as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, succeeding Jerome Powell at a time of mounting uncertainty over inflation, geopolitical conflicts and volatile financial markets, alongside rising political pressure on the central bank's independence. The swearing-in itself underscored the president's unprecedented involvement with the Fed: Warsh is the first Fed chair to be sworn in at the White House since Alan Greenspan in 1987.

President Trump publicly waved off any expectation of dictation. "I want Kevin to be totally independent," Trump said at the start of the event. "Don't look at me, don't look at anybody." Hours later at a rally in New York, he claimed interest rates will be coming down "very quickly." Warsh, for his part, vowed to "lead a reform-oriented Federal Reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes both, escaping static frameworks and models, and upholding clear standards of integrity and performance."

The macroeconomic moment is brutal. Hand-picked by Trump in January when expectations pointed to stabilizing growth and cooler inflation, Warsh now takes the reins of an economy shifting under the weight of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran; the oil shock has sharply pushed up gasoline prices, mortgage rates have climbed to their highest level in nine months and overall inflation has surged to the highest level in three years. The political wish for cheap money is colliding with reality: while Fed policymakers in March projected a rate cut later this year, the majority now favor holding rates steady, with some even floating the possibility of a rate hike. The Fed is also awaiting a Supreme Court decision over Trump's attempt to fire governor Lisa Cook, with Powell himself having attended oral arguments in a show of support for the central bank's independence.

President Trump is escalating his retribution drive after felling yet another Republican critic, destroying the reelection hopes of Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy in the state's GOP primary and sending Pete Hegseth to Kentucky in an effort to doom Representative Thomas Massie — a rare and controversial foray for a defense secretary in wartime. Massie, who co-authored a law requiring the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files and who opposes the Iran war, faces voters Tuesday.

The economic context is treacherous. Trump's weekend of plotting revenge comes as the price of gasoline averages $4.50 a gallon nationwide, with recent government data showing inflation at its highest since May 2023 — worsened because the rise in the cost of living is now outpacing wage increases. Even loyal Republicans are uneasy.

The Senate is the soft underbelly. New questions have emerged about whether the president has lost sway with some Republican senators as they mull action on a number of thorny foreign policy matters after clashing with Trump over the Iran war, the White House ballroom and his targeting of respected incumbents. Trump's Senate headwinds could show up most often on matters of foreign policy because second-term presidents typically devote more time to global affairs as they fight lame-duck status domestically. Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia has signaled the contours of the coming fight: